In every series of The X Factor (except, perhaps, the year Leona Lewis won) there comes a point where even to the most casual observer, the mood changes from a talent competition to a popularity contest. Last night, after two of the most powerful, passionate performances of her X Factor career, Ruth Lorenzo bowed out. Without question, not the worst singer of the night, but without a natural fan-base in the UK and having been in the bottom two several times, she was clearly the favourite to leave in the first week where only the voters dialling fingers were doing the picking.

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Best of America night, and the remaining five contestants had to sing two songs for a place in next week’s semi-final. The first, a Britney Spears number; the second, an American Pop Classic. Play close attention to the running order of last night’s show. The opening act is generally considered to be the most at risk, while the artist that closes the show is usually safest, being fresher in the voters’ minds when the phone lines open. But beyond that I’ll stick my neck out and say that last night’s order represents the judges favourites, least to most, and also the order that the acts will now leave the competition, right up to the last half of the final.

Britney Spears round

Ruth opened the show with I Love Rock ‘n’ Roll. A great set, a fabulous costume, but she started off looking a bit uncomfortable. The quiet bits rather too quiet while the power sections came over a bit shouty. Even so the song choice was spot on and she gave it her best shot.

JLS next and again they were up against it in this section: a boy band covering a chick song was never going to work all that well, but to compound the problems Louis chose …Baby One More Time, which he defended as a suitable song choice but all the other judges (and I) thought totally insane. The whole thing was meh. And I can say that now, because meh is officially part of the language.

I don’t think Alex’s song choice was ever in doubt. Given her track record, image, and ability, Toxic was the only right song for her to sing and she did it proud. Slightly late on the start, I thought, but she recovered well and looked fantastic. One question though: why do the X Factor producers make the artists suffer with a hand mic? Whenever Britney does a song like this with a complex dance routine, she has a head mic. And sure enough, in the results show, she was mic’d up in that way (even though I was convinced she was miming). So the technology is there, and yet with everything else they have to contend with, our struggling artists have to try to express themselves in an energetic dance routine with only one hand. How come?

Noggin was up next. He’s had some tough acts to follow and to my mind suffers the comparison. His attempt at Sometimes was easily his weakest vocal of the contest so far and yet the judges all got out their tongues to give him a good licking afterwards. They could at least try to make it less obvious.

Diana is not Britney Spears (in the same way that she’s not Mariah Carey) so her choices were limited, but the quirky I’m Not A Girl, Not Yet A Woman was probably the most sensible choice. That said, she totally murdered it. Worst of the night by a country mile and – finally! – some real criticism from Louis. Had he taken a pill or something? You come out and do the same thing every week, he said, and you’ve never danced once in this competition. He has a point. Artists like Alexandra are pushing the envelope every single week and hitting ever higher heights. While Diana comes out, stands there looking a bit floaty, or walks up and down, and that’s your lot. Could you really imagine going to a concert and watching that for two hours? Fine if you enjoy sleeping in concert halls, I guess.

American Pop Classic round

Ruth, with Always. A fantastic performance. OK maybe she was trying a little too hard, but I think she knew she was vulnerable this week. I enjoyed it immensely.

JLS followed with You Light Up My Life. Once again I have to say I found this a bit bland. This was definitely not their best week. Maybe they were still feeling nervous from having been in the bottom two last week, and Aston appeared close to tears for much of the night, even though Cheryl kindly told him that last week’s debacle wasn’t all down to him. A band sinks or swims together. Although I found both their performances weaker than usual, there were still worse singers to come.

Alex’s final song was Beyoncé’s Listen. I made one note on my little pad: Wow. One of the rare occasions this year when I’ve had chills. She just gets better and better each week, and the judges were tripping over themselves to outdo each other with superlatives after that performance. Louis said it was absolutely incredible and that Alex is the best singer in the competition, while Simon called it simply the best performance of the competition.

Sadly, I don’t believe Alex can win. Note her third place in the running order. I’m pretty sure she’ll reach the final but be the first one eliminated. It’s a shame, but she suffers from the accusation of being “too similar” to Leona, even though that makes no sense. On the bright side, once the series is finished, there’ll be no stopping her. I’d still like to see her win though, obviously.

Noggin bounced his way energetically through We’re All In This Together from High School Musical, complete with an army of dancers/backing singers who often drowned him out completely for long sections. I hated it, but I’m well aware I’m in the minority, and that Noggin’s cross-generational appeal (I mean very young girls, mums and nanas) will guarantee his arrival in the final (and his second place, if I’m any judge).

And so we came to the final nightmare: Diana attempting one of my favourite songs of all time – REM’s Everybody Hurts. Good grief. What can I say? Simon reckoned her performance had put her back in contention while I just thought if there was any justice it should have kicked her out the door. Truly awful.

After a brief Britney interlude, and an even briefer interview from Dermot (he asked her two questions, and both answers involved the word “oh-summm”) it was results time and a brave Ruth took her medicine and made the traditional comments about this being the beginning not the end, etc.

Next week: Semi-final. 7pm. Don’t be late!