So the final four also-rans (which American Idol likes to call the "best of the rest") have been culled and we're left with the 12 best singers from the tens of thousands of auditionees, at least, if you believe the publicity machine.

Much has been made of how this year's contest is stronger than ever before. Simon Cowell calls it more "open," meaning he can't easily predict the result, and has gone on record saying there are four really strong boys and four strong girls from which elite group anyone could win. Take a look over the cut for a list of the 12 in pictures, and my reprise of their Idol career so far. And, since I don't have anything like as much credibility to lose as Mr Cowell, you might even find some early predictions in there too.

In alphabetical order of first name, first up in the top 12 is Amanda Overmyer - one of my early favourites. When she first appeared in the auditions, and during Hollywood week, she was fresh, unique and stimulating. During the elimination rounds I felt she gave away some clues that she may not be prepared to do the work needed to raise her game. Her stage moves are a little stilted and repetitive and although her voice is strong and gravelly and she looks great, that's not going to be enough for her to win out over stronger all-round performers. Another thing working against her is the American public are easily bored, and if she comes out with the same old same old every week, she won't last long.

My prediction: won't reach the top 6.

Brooke White is one of those famous reality show mysteries: a dark horse. Her performance this week of the Pat Benatar number "Love is a Battlefield" was brave and intelligent. Now I don't believe "brave and intelligent" is enough for her to win out over the stronger contestants but one thing is certain - she won't ever be able to be accused of repeating the same trick each week.

My prediction: one of the hardest to call, but at this early stage my gut feel is she'll miss out on the top 6 by a narrow margin.

Carly Smithson is one of the strongest women contestants. Her voice is raw and powerful, although it has a tendency to go off pitch when she pushes it. I'm sure she'll learn how to fix that in the weeks to come and when she does, she'll be a force to be reckoned with. She looks *great* (she's the one with the full-arm tattoo on her right side) and so far she has picked some excellent songs.

My prediction: A shoo-in for the top three, unless she does something really foolish

With a voice like melted butter and a winning smile, Chikezie comes across as one of the nicest guys in the competition, in a competition full of nice guys. Another dark horse possibility - beneath his calm exterior you can see he really wants to get as far as he can. So far his song choices have been personal and not designed to appeal to a wide audience. He needs to fix that quickly but if he does could make the top 6. I think he enjoys the "George Huff effect."

My prediction: Top 6, or if not a very near miss.

This young guy is certainly in Simon's list of strong contenders, he's already crowned him with the epithet "the one to beat" and I totally agree. David Archuleta needs to watch his song choices, but as has often been said of others: he could "sing the phonebook." Added to that he's personable, affable and self-deprecating, so the producers must be salivating at the thought of what a good ambassador he would be for Idol (to add to their growing stable of great successes).

My prediction: Top 3 easily.

Most memorable thing about David Cook is his strange bed hair. If Simon hasn't already called him forgettable it's surely just a matter of time. During the results show it was revealed that Lionel Richie had heard David's rendition of Hello and liked it. Probably because it was almost indistinguishable from his own. This guy needs to learn to stand out and fast.

My prediction: A virtual certainty to leave in the bottom 6, and if pushed I'd say in the first three weeks of the finals.

Why so many Davids this year? David Hernandez has now of course become notorious for the silly hoo-hah surrounding his Life Before Idol. Hopefully that will die down and we'll be able to concentrate on his Life During Idol, which could be very good. He has a strong voice, a rather unfortunate tendency to scowl and grimace like an axe murderer while he's singing, but reasonably good stage presence which will certainly grow as he gains confidence in the next few weeks.

My prediction: Bottom 6, but a narrow miss for the Top 6

A series of weak performance and strange song choices have left Jason Castro vulnerable, but he's clearly popular enough to have survived those early dangers. Even so, he's not managed to establish himself as one of the stronger contenders and with the competition he's facing I think we'll be seeing him taking an early bath finals-wise.

My prediction: Bottom 3

Another contestant who commits the cardinal sin in Idol terms: Kristy Lee Cook is forgettable, and this time Simon has definitely tarred her with that epithet. "I still think your problem," he said, "is that you're forgettable." Having already been in the bottom 3 during the eliminations and regularly receiving less- than- glowing comments from the judges, Kristy must be heading for a very short tenure as an Idol finalist.

My prediction: Bottom 3

At 29 the oldest finalist, Michael Johns has been staunchly occupying the middle ground of judges' opinions during the entire three weeks of the eliminations. Never standing out either for being very good or very bad, and yet having earned the comment from Simon at one stage that he was "the most consistent contestant." Note that he very carefully didn't say consistently good. So at the moment, he's in the "good but not that good" box. Can he get better? There's been no evidence of it so far, and in relative positions against a good many others, he's starting from the back.

My prediction: Bottom 6

Ramiele Malubay's performances have been heavily dependent on a good song choice. When she's comfortable with the song she can outsing any of the other finalists, but when she's not, she falters. This lack of versatility explains the widely varying comments she's had from judges during eliminations, and could cost her dearly if we're to have strongly themed rounds unless she learns to deal with it. This doesn't take into account the popularity factor though. If she builds a strong fan base, that could easily carry her through.

My prediction: Top 6 - close contender for Top 3 with Syesha

I really like this girl. Syesha Mercado is smily, gutsy and a helluva good singer. Unfortunately I think she may be destined to be this year's La Toya London. Very reminiscent of Nadia Turner from Season 4, I think she'll split the vote and come off worse against Ramiele, who seems to be attracting a lot more media attention and hot tips.

My prediction: Top 6 - close contender for Top 3 with Ramiele

You'll find a lot more reality TV goodies on our sister site: Available for Panto.